The current US online casino map: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island. Combined population, around 49 million — roughly 15% of the country. For comparison, online sports betting is live in states representing over 85% of US adults.
The gap isn't ideological. It's structural. State legislators who backed sports betting now face a political calculus on casino: higher revenue potential, but also a higher-profile constituency — land-based tribal casinos, state lottery operators, and the problem-gambling lobby — arguing against expansion. In 2026, three states have working bills with real momentum.
Maryland: the most likely to pass
Maryland's HB 17 cleared the House committee in March and is on the Senate floor. The bill allows up to six licences, keeps tribal and land-based stakeholders whole via guaranteed skin agreements, and carries a 20% tax rate — lower than Pennsylvania's 54% slots tax, higher than New Jersey's 15%.
The politics are favourable. Governor Wes Moore has said publicly he would sign an online casino bill if the revenue is ringfenced for education, which the current draft does. The Maryland Lottery estimates first-year GGR in the range of $450–$600 million, climbing to $1.2 billion in steady state.
Our estimate: 65% probability of passing this session, with a soft-launch target of early 2027. FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and DraftKings are all expected to file for licences on day one.
New York: the prize, but the hardest path
New York is the white whale. A state with 19 million residents, a mature online sports betting market already generating over $2 billion in annual tax revenue, and an obvious jump to casino. Senate Bill S3635, reintroduced by Senator Addabbo, projects $1 billion in year-one tax revenue at a proposed 30% rate.
The obstacle is Assembly Speaker Heastie, who has consistently declined to bring online casino legislation to the floor over concerns raised by the NYS Gaming Commission and problem-gambling advocates. The state's recent land-based casino licensing round in the New York City area — three downstate casinos are finalising their selections — has also complicated the politics. Land-based operators don't want online casino legalised until their capital investment has paid off.
Our estimate: 25% probability in 2026. The push probably slips to 2027, with a negotiated compromise tying online launch to a three-year window after land-based opens.
Illinois: the dark horse
Illinois finished 2025 with a $3.2 billion budget gap. Governor Pritzker's team has been quietly warmer to online casino revenue than the public messaging suggests, and HB 3080 — which proposes a 25% tax and six licences — has more bipartisan support than previous attempts.
The complication is the state's complicated video gaming terminal (VGT) network. Illinois has over 47,000 licensed VGTs in bars and restaurants, generating significant state tax revenue and representing a powerful lobby. Any online casino bill that meaningfully cannibalises VGT revenue will struggle. The current draft includes a VGT carve-out that may satisfy the industry — but the fiscal mathematics only work if it doesn't.
Our estimate: 35% probability in 2026. Most likely path: a fall special session tied to the state budget.
States not on the 2026 list
Several names come up in industry chatter that aren't realistic near-term. Ohio passed sports betting in 2022 but has shown no legislative appetite for casino. Massachusetts is tied up in tribal compact negotiations. Louisiana, Indiana, Iowa all have mature sports betting but strong land-based lobbying that's so far been decisive. California and Texas — the two biggest prizes by population — are multi-year efforts at best, with tribal sovereignty issues in California alone pushing any realistic timeline out to 2028–2030.
What to watch over the next 90 days
- Maryland Senate floor vote, expected late April or early May.
- Illinois fiscal year negotiations, which will test whether online casino survives as a revenue-raising option in the budget.
- New York legislative session close in early June — the bill either moves before then or waits another year.
What it means for players
If any of the three pass, expect soft launches 6–9 months after signature. First-mover operators are almost always the major nationally-recognised brands — FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, BetRivers, and Fanatics — with smaller brands arriving later if at all. Welcome offers in a new state's launch period are typically the most aggressive they'll ever be, as operators fight for first-mover market share.
Our US online casino guide tracks legal status state-by-state, and the newest casinos page updates as each new jurisdiction launches.